By Kenneth Trester
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Additional resources for 101 Option Trading Secrets
Emotionally they prefer not to be in that position. In fact, when the market is falling, they would prefer to be also sellers. The specialists in a sense have been forced to be contrary investors in the very short term. Consequently, in the end they are the winners. Markets at times tend to move to extremes. When they do, you have a chance to stack the odds in your favor and improve THE PREDICTION GAME your odds of predicting future price moves. The problem is that when markets move to extremes, you, like everyone else, emotionally don’t want to take an opposing position.
When they go into a slump and 24 BEWARE OF LADY LUCK cannot get a hit, they change their style of hitting and slip into a greater slump. Lady Luck has a tendency to make us look very brilliant or very stupid. Consequently, as you trade options, beware of Lady Luck. If you are an option buyer, be prepared for losing streaks, stick to your game plan and don’t get discouraged. Of course, this is difficult to do and is a major obstacle for the option buyer. If you can’t handle a lot of losses, then you might want to consider option strategies with much higher probabilities of profit, which we will disclose in future chapters.
In pro football, the super bowl champion is likely to show poorer performances in the next year, especially at the beginning of the season, as it regresses back to the mean. The same applies to the stock market. A hot fund manager is likely to cool off next year. A wild bull market is likely to end up in a bear market or major correction. When the stock market is THE PREDICTION GAME very quiet, it is likely to get much more volatility—the calm before the storm. Options that are cheap and undervalued are likely to become properly valued or expensive, and overvalued options tend to get less expensive.