Posts about Scenarios written by dchone. Jeremy speaking to camera, standing to the right of the shot, against a white background. All forward-looking statements contained in this website are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. But what it allowed the government to do, and the people of South Africa, is to think about the future…”, “…from the same premise. I guess, we all face uncertainty, don’t we? Previous Next. This is a critical economy-wide challenge because everything we do needs energy but it can be achieved. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. Shell Scenarios ask “what if?” questions encouraging leaders to consider events … In sharp contrast with the 4 archetypes method is the Shell method, which involves an open ended dialogue about the futures without clear indication on when the scenario planning process will end. Microsoft’s future vision now involves clever modes for clever hardware. A selection of short films introduce and explain the Shell Scenarios over the years, and the work of our Scenarios team. 1. It requires intellectual preparation.”, Caption: Napier Collyns, Co-Founder, Global Business Network, “…make you realise that there will be many unexpected developments.”, Wide of low rise city, desert in background, followed by aerial shot of a city on a delta, “The one that's obvious today, is the fact…”, “…all over the world now we're having shale developments for Berita oil and for natural gas, which has changed the structure of oil and energy developments worldwide.”, The City of London high rises seen from the Thames river bank, followed by a pan across the top of a high-rise city with sea in the background, then close up of a man re-fuelling a bus from a Shell pump, then Shell Fuel Cell Bus travelling through a European town, then a low level support bridge over a river with large official buildings in the background, then the Jesus statue above Rio de Janeiro, “…that we keep looking for oil and gas, and luckily in the United States, we've found oil and gas unexpectedly.”, Cars travelling along an American city street towards camera left, then cars travelling along an American city street to camera right, then further cars travelling in both directions along a city street with a hill in the background, “When I say unexpectedly, even then the most interesting scenarios…”, “…ten or fifteen years ago, we weren't really thinking…”, Sign for Shell Hydrogen Fuel station Ventristoo, Several engineers, overalls, safety gear, at a plant, Caption: Michael Jefferson, Visiting Professor, Department of Economics & International Studies, University of Buckingham, “We are dealing so often with unknowledge...and unforeknowledge.”, Heavy traffic travels in both directions along a wide city avenue, followed by shot of a car travelling left to right across screen, parked cars, police officer, cinema in the background, “…clear idea that we don't know the future, we can't just forecast.”, “We can't create a model, turn a handle.”, Pedestrians in a crowded city street, woman with smog mask walks towards camera, “I think scenario planning is perhaps the most important analytical tool we have, and Shell is...and has been...the most important innovator in that process.”. Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. We have been developing Scenarios within Shell for almost 50 years. The study also recommends comprehensive reform of gas market mechanisms, regulations, and institutions, including greater competition in upstream gas exploration and production, diversifying sources of imported gas to drive greater competition in wholesale and retail gas markets, and effective regulation of gas transmission and distribution infrastructure to ensure third party access on competitive terms. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2016 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov). Scenarios are alternate futures in which today's decisions may play out. Exclusive Offer for Shell Fleet Card Customers Enjoy an exclusive offer from Shell … All three are transformational in nature, with net-zero emissions now within sight, albeit on … Shell’s scenario planning enabled it to anticipate the rise and subsequent fall of oil process in 1973. The Hague, The Netherlands (ots/PRNewswire) - Shell today released new scenarios that explore two possible ways the 21st century could unfold, with dramatically different implications for society and They stretch our thinking and help us to make crucial choices in times of uncertainty and transitions as we grapple with tough energy and environmental issues. After identifying the biggest potential drivers of cross-sector energy transformation, a joint Shell Scenarios and local Germany team effort with contributions from external experts developed two possible energy transition scenarios: 'Winning the Marathon’ and 'Slowing Momentum’. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. Our scenarios work is also useful for advising public bodies, institutions and governments across a range of sectors, as it draws together expertise from a number of disciplines. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Soon after the Mont Fleur scenarios…”, Speeded up pan along a South African highway, Table Mountain and Cape Town in the background, “…trade unions, the NUM, COSATU were using it in their organisations. Shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years to help deepen its strategic thinking. Today, Shell's scenarios are clearly a unique resource for the organization to develop the future they want. Which means that we can only really imagine the future…. Trend-impact analysis is concerned with the effects of trends in markets or populations, over a period of time. Und Shell muss dazu beitragen, indem wir Lösungen bereitstellen, die unseren Kunden helfen können, ihre Emissionen zu reduzieren. Explore three new scenarios that consider the consequences of near-term choices, including implications for the pace of energy transitions and the impact on climate. The expressions “Royal Dutch/Shell Group” and “Group” are used to refer to the As such, economies falter, too, as the virus comes and goes, and a solid recovery doesn’t emerge in the 2020s. We have a lift off!”. A blue car icon travels to the right as Geraldine points her left hand. In Sky, renewables dominate 2ndhalf of the century. Shell has been developing possible visions of the future since the early 1970s, helping generations of Shell leaders, academics, governments and businesses to explore ways forward and make better decisions. Here are just some of the projects that the Shell Scenarios team has been involved with recently. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this website, September 2017. It has increasingly turned its modelling into a PR exercise designed to convince the world that it is sustainable. We at Rewired State have been asked to supply evidence to the Public Administration Select Committee. It is important to note that Shell’s existing portfolio has been decades in development. Head of Shell Scenarios, Jeremy Bentham and Political Analyst, Geraldine Wessing talk about the potential for modelling possible future scenarios by considering alternative perspectives of current events. Shell has been a pioneer in developing scenarios to explore the future and deepen its strategic thinking for nearly 50 years. Geraldine enters from the left and stands against a white background, speaking to camera. Then we explore the potential impact these, in turn, may have until we’re able to model very specific scenarios. A box containing the words, ‘What if?’ appears at the point where the lines diverge, each leading to a box with a different icon in: a blue graph, a purple hazard warning sign and a red pile of dollar coins, before continuing on their respective courses. Shell Scenarios. Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:00pm 2 comments Favorite This. The expressions “Royal Dutch/Shell Group” and “Group” are used to refer to the companies of the Royal Dutch/Shell Group as a whole. While we seek to enhance our operations’ average energy intensity through both the development of new projects and divestments, we have no immediate plans to move to a net-zero emissions portfolio over our investment horizon of 10-20 years. Shell Scenarios - A tool for the future. We use multiple future scenarios to assess the resilience of our strategy. The entire view of the graphics and Jeremy slides to the right, as a new scene of a woman leaning on the side of a desk against a white background slides into place. One way of challenging our assumptions is by becoming aware of, and understanding, different perspectives. For most of us, thinking about the future is quite tricky. Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Royal Dutch Shell plc securities. All three are transformational in nature, with net-zero emissions now within sight, albeit on … Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. It rises into an orange box that appears in the form of a thought bubble containing other icons such as a plane, bicycle, smartphone, etc. The white paper presented by the European Commission on 1 March sets out possible paths for the future of Europe. They are designed to help German society and government explore all the implications and support key energy decisions in the coming years. How would we live, work and play in 2050? These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this website and should be considered by the reader. Developing and applying scenarios is part of an ongoing process in Shell that encourages decision-makers to explore the features, uncertainties, and boundaries of the future landscape, and engage with alternative points of view. Cooperation with centres of excellence and contributions by eminent experts in the course of developing these scenarios refl ect strong teamwork, within and beyond corporate boundaries. They help us to make crucial choices in uncertain times as we grapple with tough energy and environmental issues. For example, on Christmas Eve 1968, the first manned mission to the Moon entered lunar orbit. In the “Turbulent Times” scenario, nationalism, fake news, and populist forces lead to ongoing deglobalization. Although Shell's scenario of a low carbon future is heralded for its existence, the real value is in what it says about the impact of such a scenario, not that an oil company has one. The company’s most recent scenarios have been given natural names that wouldn't sound out of place in a yoga studio: “Mountains”, “Ocean” and “Sky”! Shell increasingly talks of low-carbon scenarios, and last month it promised to become a net-zero emissions company by 2050. The New Lens Scenarios are a part of an ongoing process used in Shell for 40 years to challenge executives’ perspectives on the future business environment. The Shell Scenarios team brings together experts from an array of disciplines to understand versions of the future. The “Deceptive Calm” scenario looks at the future from another perspective. Learn what others say about the importance of Shell Scenarios, Caption: Tim Harford, Author, columnist for the Financial Times and Presenter on Radio 4, “So, I'm very interested in bringing together different ideas and I found the scenario process was great for that. We also try to learn and to stimulate deeper collaboration by publishing material, discussing our thinking extensively and developing scenarios with governments, think tanks and other interested parties. But are they realistic? That's the hardest part. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. Shell has been preparing for the challenges of a lower-carbon future for some time through our scenarios planning. Shell worked with the New York Times to illustrate how cleaner transportation fits into Shell’s Sky Scenario – a challenging, possible pathway for the world to meet the aims of the Paris Agreement. Different coloured lines branch off at right angles from the red line as the camera zooms out, incorporating blocks of colour and graphic icons of silhouettes such as a battery, factory, dollar sign, family, credit cards, etc. This, as well as other critical questions about a technically possible pathway to get to net-zero emissions are explored in the Sky scenario. We start off thinking big; we think about the major trends that are beyond our control, such as demographic changes, politics, technological progress or climate change. A blue car icon travels to the left as Geraldine points her right hand. Ambient music featuring mallet percussion and synthesised musical effects. It sponsors an “eco-marathon” competition to develop the … The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers. But as behavioural economists like Dan Kahneman have pointed out, we tend to be trapped within the limits of our own experience, which leads to all kinds of problems. It’s very much an outside–in approach. Tag Archives: Shell future scenarios. Shell make signifi cant contributions to important debates in the world at large. The Shell Scenarios team has explored the potential impact of the crisis. The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. The spirit of Shell’s scenario practice – logical and rigorous, creative and open – has guided us throughout.” Peter Ho, Senior Advisor for the Centre of Strategic Futures, a think-tank of the Singapore Government, said: “The Singapore Government started using scenario planning in 1991. Watch later. Once you ask the right questions…”, “…the answers tend to become self-evident. Shell’s New Lens Scenarios, examine the economic, political and energy trends out to 2100, and underscore the critical role that government policies will likely play in shaping the future. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. A red, a blue and a purple line appear at the bottom left, extending across the white space next to Jeremy. Ironically, the mission’s aim was to explore space but that evening, the astronauts took an important picture, not of space, but of Earth. Focus on Strategy . With HSBC-Shell Escape programme, earn 1 Shell Escape point for every $5 charged to your HSBC credit cards and get 20% more Shell Escape points when you pump Shell … Shell Scenarios are helping us prepare for that future and I hope this approach will also help you prepare for the challenges and uncertainties you might face in the future. Yet all of us have to make big decisions that can have important consequences, either personal or organisational. While our own multidisciplinary team and around 150 other Shell experts might have contributed to some of our large-scope work, up to 300 external experts may also have been involved. We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this website that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. A blue line bisects the screen, dividing it into two thirds clear, one third misty. Apply now. Tap to unmute. The Shell Global Scenarios The companies in which Royal Dutch Petroleum Company and The “Shell” Transport and Trading Company, p.l.c. Le Roux asked me to lead the meetings of his group, and I agreed enthusiastically. In many scenario planning projects, creating a more flexible and more open learning environment is a major objective of the project. Copy link. directly or indirectly own investments are separate and distinct entities. Early Indicators. Die Welt muss deshalb die Art und Weise ändern, in der sie Energie nutzt. And thirdly…”, “… you can use it to just educate people in the organisation so you have a framework for better dialogue.”, Two engineers, overalls, safety gear, discussing piping at a plant, followed by two further engineers in front of plant in distant background, Caption: Amory Lovins, Chairman & Chief Scientist Rocky Mountain Institute, “Shell scenarios are a unique resource for all of us who think about…”, Wide shot of motorist at petrol station as he inserts the petrol pump nozzle into his car, followed by close up as the nozzle goes in, “Like all good scenarios, and indeed many of them built on that model, they're not predictions, they're a vehicle for telling stories.”, “But the stories they tell, to change the picture of reality in the minds of the leaders reading them…”, Wide of a busy city street in a low-rise city, followed by a hydrogen car from front on as it turns a corner, then another car, emblazoned with Shell Pecten, travelling across camera on a busy city street at night, “…are often provocative, fresh, and of course the underlying trick is to choose the axes correctly. The Scenarios team has produced a joint study with the Development Research Centre (DRC) of China’s State Council to examine how natural gas could evolve as a mainstream energy source in China. Climate Change Advisor for Shell. Developing and applying scenarios is part of an ongoing process in Shell that encourages decision-makers to explore the features, uncertainties, and boundaries of the future landscape, and engage with alternative points of view. Every few years Shell releases a new set of overarching global energy scenarios and this week marks the launch of our Energy Transformation Scenarios.Three scenarios, namely Waves, Islands and Sky 1.5 explore the energy landscape out to 2100 and reveal very different possible pathways forward. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.. A similar animation of extending lines and emerging icons containing various symbols. Earlier scenarios Shell Scenarios since the 1970s have helped us understand how the world and its energy system could evolve in decades to come. Open data then and now – and er next? Red and orange boxes displaying text to indicate the major trends appear next to Geraldine as she mentions and points to each one, before floating around as they are connected by lines. Take the Future Cities quiz and match yourself to a global city! Shell Scenarios since the 1970s have helped us understand how the world and its energy system could evolve in decades to come. They are stories with beginnings, middles and ends. Shell has been exploring critical uncertainties for almost 50 years through scenarios. Our New Lens Scenarios describe plausible futures, where renewable energy sources like solar and wind could provide up to 40% of energy globally by 2060, and the sun becomes the world’s largest primary energy source a decade later. Shell logo centred on a white background. Based on input from over 600 experts, the report looks at the energy needed in Britain, across electricity and gas - examining where it could come from, how it needs to change and what this means for consumers, society and the energy system itself. Main heading in red, followed by subheading in grey letters appearing, as if typed, across a white screen: Accelerating zoom shot in to the edge of the last ‘S’ in ‘Scenarios’. She follows it with her eyes as she speaks. While we believe our portfolio is resilient under a wide range of outlooks, including the IEA’s 450 scenario, it includes assets across a spectrum of energy intensities including some with above-average intensity. Imagine The Future Scenarios Competition [Shell Hecten] [Shell Jingle] Imagine the Future scenarios. Increased energy demand due to social and demographic factors The world will continue to demand more and more energy in the next years. technique used by business leaders to expand thinking around decisions that involve complex future choices. 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Large scale reforestation could be a key lever for society to attain the stretched goal of the Paris Agreement. Future Energy Scenarios, maps out credible pathways and scenarios for the future of energy for the next 30 years and beyond. The Shell Global Scenarios The companies in which Royal Dutch Petroleum Company and The “Shell” Transport and Trading Company, p.l.c. Based on detailed economic modelling, the joint study has put forward recommendations for strengthening environmental regulations including effective carbon pricing. The Shell Scenarios team brings together experts from an array of disciplines to understand versions of the future. The Sky scenario illustrates a technically possible, but challenging pathway for society to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. In this website “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this website, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. , shrinking down to indicate a particular area of the date of this website contains forward-looking.. 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